The Omni Homestead
resort in Hot Springs was the center of politics in the Commonwealth of
Virginia. On Saturday July 22nd, the Virginia Bar Association
welcomed the current lieutenant governor, Democrat, Ralph Northam and businessman,
Republican, Ed Gillespie to participate in the debate moderated by “PBS
Newshour” host Judy Woodruff.
Since
securing their respective party’s nominations both candidates have tried to
focus their attention on what they believe to be their opponent’s biggest
weakness.
The
Gillespie campaign has highlighted Ralph Northam’s indecisiveness on the
Atlantic Coast Pipeline. The lieutenant governor has tried to walk a tightrope
on the Dominion Project. During his primary race with Tom Perriello, Ralph
Northam opted to defer to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission and
Virginia’s Department of Environmental Quality as to what would be the best decision
for the citizens of the Commonwealth. His well crated political answers about
the pipeline have hurt him. His middle of the road approach has alienated the
environmentalist wing of the Democratic party who supported his primary
opponent.
Since
securing the Democratic party’s nomination, Ralph Northam has sought to make
this election a referendum on the Presidency of Donald Trump: whom he has referred
to as a “narcissistic maniac.” The lieutenant governor has tried to link Ed
Gillespie to the polices, or lack of polices, coming out of Washington D.C. His
campaign even incorporated the use of a cardboard cutout of Ed Gillespie in a
Facebook live video while reading the proposed GOP healthcare bill.
Both of
these strategies, on the surface, are politically savvy, but the Northam
strategy is problematic. Making the November election a referendum on Donald
Trump is likely to fail in what is expected to be another low voter turnout
election. The Commonwealth remains a purple state even though the Democratic
candidate has won here in three straight presidential elections. Republicans
control the state legislature due to heavily gerrymandered districts and the
Democrats off year election apathy.
In the 2016
presidential election (according to the Virginia Department of Elections) 72%
of registered Virginians participated. That was up one percentage point from
2012, but down from the 74% who voted in 2008. If the 2017 gubernatorial
election follows the 2009 and 2013 trends there could be as much as a 30-percentage
point drop in voter participation. This fact doomed State Senator Creigh Deeds
in his 2009 gubernatorial race against Republican Bob McDonnell.
Ed Gillespie’s
strategy of forcing Ralph Northam to go on the record about the Atlantic Coast
Pipeline could prove to be his trump card (pun intended). The interruption at
the beginning of the VBA debate by a young man form Loudon County is indicative
of where a lot of the Bernie Sanders/Tom Perriello progressives stand on this
issue. The lieutenant governor would have to get unprecedented support from the
Blue Ridge and Appalachian Mountains if young environmentalist in the
progressive wing of the Democratic party take 2017 off.
This
election isn’t likely to turn on issues affecting the masses of Virginians.
There are a lot of one issue voters who won’t concern themselves with budgets, tax
policies, healthcare, or infrastructure spending. Voters who followed these
candidates through their primary races likely didn’t learn anything new during
this debate. For them, Saturday morning was more performance art than a rigorous
dialogue about the issues. For voters tuning in for the first time the candidates
painted a Rorschach of themselves and their opponent. Neither candidate
improved or diminished their chances of winning in November; If you are a Republican
Gillespie will do, and if you are a Democrat Northam is your guy. Both
candidates looked like boxers content with letting the judges decide the
outcome. A lot can happen between now and November, but the most eventful
moment of this debate belonged to a young man who isn’t on the ballot.
